(from http://www.cnzhixiang.com)
With the trust between the upstream paper industry and the downstream packaging industry becoming less and less, and the domestic inflation pressure increasing, the packaging industry in 2020 will be more turbulent.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the trend of wrapping paper prices continued for a long time, and the concerted actions of upstream paper mills once again exceeded the expectations of the paper packaging industry.For this round after round of price increases, the paper mills give the reason is rising costs, securities people think it is the industry cycle inflection point, while some paper packaging and printing people think it is the concerted action of upstream paper mills, aiming to recover the weakness of the first three quarters, harvest the downstream industry, a fat year.
With the trust between the upstream paper industry and the downstream packaging industry becoming less and less, and the domestic inflation pressure increasing, the packaging industry will become more and more turbulent in 2020.
Familiar taste, wrapping paper reproduction stop price surge
"After September this year, the letter of increase is basically valid, the price can be smoothly landed, now the inventory to a relatively low position."Have paper industry personage to tell a reporter.
This month's price increase letter is different from the past, basically did not give the downstream too much reaction time, from the next letter to the price increase, the shortest time is only one day.And before from the letter to the implementation of the new price, there is basically more than a week of buffer time.This also lets downstream customers meet from "eat" to "store".
"I want to, but I dare not."A downstream packaging practitioners to reporters pour bitter water: "the price of corrugated paper changes too fast, now do not store point, afraid of more expensive behind.I bought a lot and I was afraid the price would go down, but now every order is a little more than before."
Note: price trend of corrugated paper and cardboard in jiangsu, zhejiang and Shanghai since October 1
In the last week, nine dragons paper, mountain eagle paper and other large paper companies to their own cattle card paper, corrugated paper price 50 to 100 yuan per ton, these paper giants last price point at the beginning of this month, the price range is similar to this.Small range, high frequency, this is the mainstream of the current price increases, the reporter found that many paper mills within a week two price increases, the highest single increase of 200 yuan/ton.
As in the past routine is the same, with the price increase letter at the same time there is a stop letter.Mountain eagle paper industry released the maintenance plan to suspend production for the Spring Festival on December 10. The company's 15 paper machines located in five production bases in China will be suspended for 4-20 days during January 20 solstice February 15.Earlier, nine dragons, liwen have announced the Spring Festival shutdown plan, downtime, impact capacity and mountain eagle paper similar.From the rule of the past, the price increase letter, stop the letter together, will make the price more stable, the continuity of the new price will be longer.
Securities: cycle inflection point will now?
Since the end of 2016, the price of corrugated paper tripled in a year, the whole paper industry with fire, the root cause is the environmental storm caused by the lack of capacity, coupled with the country's restrictions on the import of waste paper, resulting in higher raw material costs.
Now low inventory, increased cost pressure in front of the paper enterprises.By the end of 2020, the state plans to clear the quota of foreign waste imports, and the scarcity of raw materials has once again become the consensus of paper enterprises.
At the upstream cost end, the waste price of China has shown an upward trend since November. Although the purchase price of waste paper dropped slightly this week, the paper mills have been upgrading the quality of waste paper.
Zhongtai securities said in the research report that the current point paper cycle is similar to the opening logic of the paper cycle at the end of 2016.Inventory cycle, the major paper inventory are in the low, raw material inventory growth rate turned up, indicating that the active destocking phase ended, the industry entered a passive destocking phase.
Paper packaging person: paper mill harvest downstream fertilizer year
Outsiders often blame higher costs and a shortage of raw materials for fourth-quarter price rises, but this analysis fails to explain why paper prices have been falling in the first three quarters of the year.Because of the lack of demand, packaging paper in the long-term supply over the adverse situation, resulting in packaging paper leading a continuous cut in price, in order to reduce the price in exchange for orders, at the same time in order to clean small and medium paper production capacity.
But the reduction strategy also brought many adverse factors to the upstream paper industry with high debt ratio.According to statistics from the national bureau of statistics (NBS), the main economic indicators of paper-making enterprises above the scale from January to September of 2019 indirectly reveal the reasons for this wave of price increases.
1. Main business revenue decreased by 11.8%.From January to September 2019, the industry as a whole achieved 977.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.3 billion yuan or 7.6%.The paper industry reached 560.2 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan less than the figure for the same period last year, down 11.8%.
2. Total profit decreased by 41.3%.From January to September 2019, the industry completed 43.7 billion yuan, 15.4 billion yuan less than the cumulative figure of the same period last year, a decrease of 26.0%.The paper industry reached 21.7 billion yuan, down 15.3 billion yuan or 41.3 percent from the same period last year.
Obviously, the sharp decline in revenue and profit for the paper industry, which has a high debt ratio, is no doubt a rope around the neck. If the long-term development goes on like this, the company's cash flow is at risk of collapse.
Into the finale of the pig, will have basic abuse of medium and small paper mills remnants of papermaking giants began year-end counter-offensive, starting in September, a few big paper giant launched rounds with the unstoppable trend of price increases, while the downstream paper enterprises under pressure to end customer tried to resist, but still want to buy paper, after the packaging enterprise give up resistance, during the boom.
Therefore, the paper price surge in the fourth quarter of this year is different from the paper shortage in 2016. On the contrary, it is similar to the paper price surge in 2017.However, this wave of rising prices, but also to the downstream paper packaging and printing industry heavy blow, cardboard industry miserable, carton factory hope for a year into the air.
Where will packaging go in 2020?We don't know.