(from http://www.cnzhixiang.com)
At the beginning of December, guojin securities published the light industry paper industry research annual strategy report.
Based on the comparative analysis of packaging paper inventory, price, domestic waste price, foreign waste import situation, as well as wood pulp inventory, price and other data, the report draws a preliminary conclusion that "paper industry profits began to repair".
Below, we come to specific analysis.
Wrapping paper
In October this year, the national average inventory days of corrugated cardboard is 9.86 days, basically in the history of relatively low.
And from the demand point of view, this September, the domestic cardboard and corrugated paper demand, year-on-year growth of 810,000 tons and 660,000 tons.
Due to the combination of low inventory and recovering demand, packaging prices began to rise in September.At the same time, by the Spring Festival demand peak season + giant shutdown double effect, this round of paper prices, will continue in the short term.
In the third quarter of this year, the composite gross profit rate of papermaking plate increased by 19.79% and increased by 4.81 PCT.
Waste paper in terms of
Combined with the current low domestic paper inventory and the reality of short-term demand recovery, accompanied by the end of next year will achieve a comprehensive ban on imports of foreign waste, it is estimated that next year, the quota of foreign waste will be reduced to 7 million ~8 million tons, resulting in a domestic waste paper gap of about 7 million tons next year.
The import volume of waste paper decreased sharply, the recycling rate of waste paper in China is not high, resulting in the continuous tightening of raw materials, which will trigger the price of packaging paper to strengthen.
Three ways to deal with the waste paper gap
There are three main ways to solve the waste paper gap under the foreign waste ban:
1) direct import of finished paper: in 2018, the domestic imports of corrugated paper and cardboard were 1,111,200 tons and 1,353,900 tons, up 71.32% and 51.03%, respectively.Although the growth of raw paper imports is fast, but the absolute volume is relatively small, compared with the national annual demand of nearly 50 million tons of wrapping paper, the imported raw paper wrapping paper in the short term is difficult to form compensation.
2) wood pulp paper making: at present, both domestic and international pulp prices are relatively low.But the price of wood pulp is significantly higher than that of waste paper.If the use of wood pulp for packaging paper manufacturing, while stimulating the demand for wood pulp, it will also lead to the increase in cost to promote the price of raw paper.
3) overseas waste pulp production capacity of leading paper enterprises.Paper enterprises overseas layout waste pulp capacity more reasonable.Leading paper companies with overseas recycling and pulp capabilities will have a cost advantage over small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on domestic waste.
Wood pulp aspects
In September, the number of days of inventory at international wood pulp ports was 44 days, down 4 days from the previous month, and the inventory decreased by 0.48% from the previous month. In October, the inventory decreased by 5.29%.
The volume of global pulp output was 4.75 million tons in September, up 3.17% and 4.03% respectively from the previous month. In the short term, the global demand for wood pulp has recovered.
Benefited from this, the international pulp price began to stabilize in September this year, the price of internal plate pulp also basically in November to stop the downward trend, the price of wood pulp in the short term has some support, continue to decline probability is small.
In the long term, according to PPPC statistics, global broadleaf pulp supply is expected to be 39.57 million tons this year, up slightly by 0.51% year on year, and demand is 34.32 million tons, up 0.95% year on year.
Over the next four years, the global broadleaf slurry production is expected to increase by 2.91 million tons while the new demand is 3.91 million tons.On the other hand, only 1.3 million tons of new wood pulp capacity is expected to be added globally next year, according to Bloomberg.
Overall, the global wood pulp production capacity in the future is not much, and to some extent, the demand growth faster than the capacity growth.Accordingly, medium - and long-term look, wood pulp price has lukewarm sex to rise foundation.
To sum up, in the short term, paper plate has opened profit repair, medium and long term, the ban on foreign waste will come, the supply of raw materials under the tightening, will push up the country's waste prices, wrapping paper or will again deduce the rising tide.
In this trend, with overseas waste paper recycling, waste pulp manufacturing capacity, and the future production capacity of high certainty sun paper, mountain eagle paper industry, will continue to make profits.