(from http://www.cnzhixiang.com)
Ta kung pao reported: for the United States and China have agreed on a first stage of economic agreements text, nine dragons paper, chairman zhang on December 16, after the general meeting of shareholders, said the news helps to promote Chinese market consumption, is helpful to group's production and sales, and revealed that the recent record-keeping also has raised its per ton 50 to 100 yuan (RMB, the same below).She explained that China's economy is resilient. Even in the face of the trade war earlier, the group's sales volume is still good, and she believes that in the future, it can still achieve a balance between production and sales.Citigroup said it expects its net profit per ton to bottom out in the fourth quarter of this year at around 100 to 200 yuan, driven by rising trade tensions between China and the United States and lower consumption due to a slowdown in real estate, before rebounding to 250 yuan in the first half of next year.It added that if tensions between the us and China ease, it believes higher demand will lead to improved margins in the first half of next year.As a result, the bank raised its 2020 to 2022 earnings forecast by 10-11 per cent, raising its target price accordingly from hk $7.50 to hk $10.50 and raising its "buy" rating from "neutral".
According to the CCTV news client on December 13, through the joint efforts of the economic and trade teams of China and the United States, the two sides have reached an agreement on the text of the first stage economic and trade agreement based on the principle of equality and mutual respect.The text includes the preamble, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, food and agricultural products, financial services, exchange rates and transparency, expanded trade, bilateral assessments and dispute settlement, and nine chapters of the final articles.At the same time, the two sides agreed that the us would fulfill its commitment to phase out tariffs on Chinese products and realize the transition from raising tariffs to lowering tariffs.It is worth noting that, at about the same time, Washington issued the same message, the first of many negotiations between the two sides.Because the choice to release official information at the same time in international negotiations indicates that on the one hand, the parties concerned have consensus on the negotiation result, and on the other hand, they have consensus on the importance of the negotiation result.
What will happen to the paper, printing and packaging industries if China and the United States reach an agreement?
Paper industry:
According to industry analysis, due to the impact of import restrictions, the amount of waste paper imported into China has been decreasing significantly year by year, but waste from the United States with better fiber quality is still the most imported foreign waste species, accounting for more than 40 percent of imports in 2019.Starting from the second half of 2018, China will impose an import tariff of 25% on us wastes, which will increase the raw material cost of Chinese paper companies. After this agreement is signed, the tariff on us wastes is expected to be eliminated, which will be a major good news for paper companies with import licenses in 2020.
Packaging and printing industry:
1. The conclusion of the agreement means that China and the United States have successfully avoided the risk of widening differences or even decoupling, ensuring the stability of China's foreign trade orders.This means a lot to China's packaging and printing industry, which relies heavily on exports.Especially at present, when domestic demand is weak and a large amount of consumption capital is used for infrastructure construction, many packaging and printing companies will not be able to sustain themselves if exports are blocked.
2. It is conducive to the stability of raw material prices.In the fourth quarter of this year, the upstream industry continues to raise prices, causing a huge impact on the downstream packaging and printing industry.The conclusion of the agreement is likely to lead to the phasing out of import tariffs on raw paper, pulp and waste paper, reducing domestic paper costs and driving paper prices back.At the same time, the conclusion of the agreement, will effectively ensure the low price of imported raw materials to domestic paper mill price impulse.
3. For China, as domestic demand is constantly suppressed by real estate and iron ore base, some end customers are facing survival crisis. Once exports to the us deteriorate, it will indirectly affect the employment in the industry.And now the agreement reached, no doubt stabilized expectations, conducive to stable employment.
4. China and the United States have avoided the danger of decoupling in time, which is of potential significance in promoting China to further deepen reform and gradually get rid of the high cost and low efficiency disadvantages of logistics, financing, energy and rent brought by state-owned monopoly.On the one hand, it is beneficial to reduce the production cost of packaging and printing enterprises, and on the other hand, it is beneficial to expand the development space of the industry which is good at free competition to the monopoly industry.
5. The conclusion of the agreement is of direct and greatest benefit to the packaging and printing enterprises in shenzhen, Shanghai, suzhou and dongguan, which are the four major cities in China's foreign trade and account for the largest share of china-us trade.
6, to the packaging and printing industry listed enterprises constitute good.Because China's listed packaging and printing industry is closely linked to China's exports and consumption, the agreement between China and the us, and even the future structural reform, will be very beneficial to listed packaging and printing companies.A shares are expected to rise next week.
A number of experts said that this has sent a positive signal to the outside world, which is conducive to promoting china-us economic and trade cooperation. Meanwhile, the stability and predictability of the market are also increasing, which is good for both the Chinese and us economies and the world economy.However, it should be pointed out that the political and economic relationship between China and the us is complicated, and new issues and challenges may change at any time.No matter how the situation changes, in 2020, China's packaging and printing enterprises are on the road of hope!